THE INTENSITY FORECASTING EXPERIMENT A NOAA Multiyear Field Program for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

M OTIVATION FOR IFEX. One of the key activities in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) strategic plan is to improve the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). The NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), a part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), is responsible for forecasting TCs in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins, while NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) develops the numerical model guidance for the forecasters. With support from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and others in the research community, continual progress has been made in improving forecasts of the TC track over the past 30 years (Franklin et al. 2003a; Aberson 2001). Advancements in state-of-the-art global and regional modeling systems at EMC and other operational numerical weather prediction centers have led to improvements in track skill over the past three decades, including a significant acceleration in improvements over the past decade. These advancements include improved assimilation of satellite and THE INTENSITY FORECASTING EXPERIMENT A NOAA Multiyear Field Program for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts